Read...

...what traders say about my real time seminar.

looks like the drop from 1153.50 is over and that a rally above that level has begun.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of 24 hour e-mini trading. I last commented on this chart here.

The ES rally this morning in reponse to the employment claims number and the Chicago PMI number sent the market up to 1153.50. But there sellers took over and so far the ES has dropped more than 20 points from this morning's high.

I think the market is in the process of breaking out above its late June and early August tops at 1127. This level should be support. It is also the midpoint of the 2007-09 bear market.

I think this reaction will end in the vicinity of that support an the lower line of the red trend channel I have drawn (green oval).

Once this minor correction is over I am looking for a swing up into the 1165-75 range.

Guesstimates on September 30, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1139-1152. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above the lower edge of the 135-40 target zone. There is as yet no sign of a top.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: I don't see signs of a top so I am raising the upside target to 1380.

SLV - December Silver: The 22.50 level has nearly been reached but there are still no signs of a top. Next stop is 23.80.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.