Here is a five point box, one box reversal chart showing e-mini trading going back to the May 2 top.As you can see the market has formed a pair of bases, one in June and one during the past week. Today we have seen a high volume breakout from the second, higher base. Both bases show point and figure counts (dashed blue lines) projecting a move into the low 1400's. I have drawn a green dash trend channel which offers pretty much the same projection.
I think the low this past Monday was point 20 of the Domed House for you Lindsay fans. Adding 7 months, 10 days to the point 16 low on March 15 gives a projection of October 25 or so for point 23, the top of the domed house. As I mentioned in the post I just linked to, late October is also about the same time that Lindsay's 15 year period from low to high and his count from the middle section project bull market tops.
For you Elliott fans I offer the following observation. I think Monday's low ended a fourth wave triangle within a five wave move up from the March 2009 bear market low. Wave 1 carried the the S&P up about 550 points and ended in April 2010. Wave 3 started from the July 2010 low, carried the average up 365 points, and ended in February 2011. Given the Fibonacci progression thus far - 550 points, 340 points - I would anticipate that wave 5 would carry the S&P up about 220 points from the July 2011 low. This gives a target of 1515 for the bull market top.
