Rabu, 29 Februari 2012

Guesstimates on February 29, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1369-1381. The rally from the November 25 low has carried the market up to and a little above 1370 which has made that rally as big as the October 2011 rally. The May 2011 top was at 1373. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near these resistance levels. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: On Friday the euro traded as high as 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has been trading a little above resistance at 80.00. If the market starts spending time above 81.00 I will conclude that it is headed for 90.00. Until then I am sticking with my 70.00 target.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL rallied to new bull market highs yesterday. Resistance above the market now is at 545.

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